Market Update Summary - Jan 19

Abstract

The crypto macro landscape strengthened notably this week as improving sentiment and institutional developments supported risk assets. CME’s expansion of regulated futures to Cardano, Chainlink and Stellar highlights rising institutional demand for structured crypto risk-management tools, while the temporary delay of the U.S. crypto market structure bill suggests lawmakers are opting for refinement over rushed regulation, a potentially constructive signal for long-term market clarity.

Market sentiment has improved materially. The Crypto Fear-and-Greed index has risen to 49, indicating a neutral stance as investors regain confidence in volatile assets. The altseason indicator stands at 27, confirming a transition out of deep Bitcoin season and into a mixed regime, supporting cautious optimism at the start of the year.

Price action reflects this shift. Bitcoin trades at $95.5K, up over 11% on the month, with Ethereum outperforming at $3,353 following an 8.5% weekly gain. Solana continues to recover to $143, while the broader COIN50 index has risen more than 10% over 30 days, signaling increasingly broad-based strength.

Smart money flows show selective risk-on behavior: inflows are concentrated in higher-conviction names such as MORPHO, RNGR, and POWER, while outflows continue from larger, more crowded positions including ONDO, ATH, and WLD.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has increased greatly, with our Crypto Fear-and-Greed index sitting at 49 (Scale 0-100), a neutral rating. We indicate that the market is regaining confidence with investors re-considering investment in volatile assets.

The altseason indicator is indicating a clear transition phase in the marker. The altseason indicator sits at 27.0 (Scale 0-100). This score represents that only 27% of altcoins included in the Top-100 index outperformed Bitcoin over the previous 90 days. Bitcoin season is interpreted as a bearish signal in the market. We are now entering the mixed zone, a positive sentiment for the new year.

Major Token Performance Performance

How to Read These Charts

These charts show the cumulative price returns of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum ETH), and the COIN50 index over the selected periods; 30 days, 7 days or 24 hours. Returns are rebased to 0% at the start of each period to highlight relative performance trends between assets.

The BTC dominance line (secondary axis) tracks Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, offering context on capital rotation between BTC and altcoins. Rising BTC dominance typically indicates capital consolidation into Bitcoin, while a decline suggests increased risk appetite and flows into altcoins.

Use these charts to quickly assess:

• Which assets outperformed or underperformed over the period

• Whether market strength was concentrated (BTC-led) or broad-based

• How shifts in BTC dominance align with overall performance trends

How to Read This Table

This table summarizes the percentage price change of key crypto and macro assets over three timeframes: 30 days, 7 days, and 24 hours. It includes major cryptocurrencies (e.g., BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL), a benchmark altcoin index (COIN50), and traditional market comparables like gold (XAU) and the S&P 500 (SPX).

The data allows you to:

• Compare short-term and medium-term performance across sectors

• Spot momentum leaders and laggards in both crypto and traditional markets

• Assess whether market moves were broad-based or asset-specific

• Track how crypto assets performed relative to macro benchmarks

This table provides a concise view of market dynamics across different asset classes and helps contextualize crypto performance within a broader macro landscape.

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Projects and Exchanges

Price Performance

Liquidity Performance

Smart Money Flows

Top 10 7D Flows

Bottom 10 7D Flows

These tables track the weekly movement of "smart money" wallets across various tokens and chains.

The Top 10 7D Flows table highlights assets that have seen the largest net inflows from smart money in the past 7 days. A high and rising 7D flow suggests growing interest, accumulation, or conviction by sophisticated traders, and may indicate strong underlying narratives or catalysts. Compare these flows with the token’s market cap to assess relative impact, inflows into small-cap assets are generally more price-sensitive.

Conversely, the Bottom 10 7D Flows table shows tokens with the largest net outflows from smart money wallets. Persistent or large outflows may reflect profit-taking, loss-cutting, or reduced confidence, and can signal weakening sentiment or fading momentum. Watch for sustained outflows alongside declining price or on-chain activity.

Use these tables to:

• Identify tokens where smart money is actively positioning

• Spot emerging narratives or sentiment reversals

• Gauge chain-specific flows, e.g., Solana vs. Ethereum vs. Base

• Inform rotational strategies across high-alpha tokens

Stablecoin Flows

Stablecoin flow data provides a real-time pulse of capital movement across exchanges and chains.

Rising stablecoin balances on-chain or on exchanges often indicate inbound liquidity, capital sitting on the sidelines potentially awaiting deployment into crypto assets. Large inflows may precede buying activity, suggesting growing market participation or renewed confidence.

On the other hand, net outflows of stablecoins could imply that capital is either exiting the crypto ecosystem or being actively deployed into volatile tokens, especially when accompanied by declining exchange balances or stablecoin dominance.

Use stablecoin flows to:

• Detect early signs of market risk appetite

• Monitor capital rotation between stablecoins and volatile assets

• Confirm the sustainability of rallies (is money really coming in?)

• Support broader macro or positioning views from other data (e.g., smart money behavior or BTC dominance)

Macro & Crypto News

January 16: CME Expands Regulated Crypto Futures

The CME Group announced it will launch regulated futures contracts for Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK) and Stellar (XLM) beginning Feb. 9, pending regulatory approval. These new products are available in both standard and micro contract sizes, addressing the growing demand from institutions and traders for regulated risk-management tools and diversified exposure to major altcoins. This expansion reflects continued maturation of crypto derivatives markets. The move underscores a broader trend of increasing institutional infrastructure for crypto beyond just BTC and ETH.

January 15: United States Crypto Market Structure Bill Delayed

The U.S. crypto market structure bill saw its Senate Banking Committee markup postponed amid deep disagreements over stablecoin yields, DeFi rules and developer protections, prompting Coinbase to withdraw support and lawmakers to pause proceedings. Industry insiders suggest that the extra time could be constructive, allowing negotiators to resolve sticking points and refine the legislation for broader bipartisan support rather than rushing an imperfect framework. Disputes around how to regulate stablecoin revenue, tokenized securities and regulatory authority are central to the bill’s current impasse. The Agriculture Committee may introduce its own version, adding another path for progress, and lawmakers continue discussions with industry stakeholders, keeping the legislation alive. The setback underscores the challenges of shaping comprehensive U.S. crypto regulation, where stablecoin controls and DeFi oversight remain the biggest hurdles.