A Status Report on Listings - EOY 2024

A Status Report on Listings - November 2024

An asset’s transition from private to public markets is of paramount importance. This transition offers valuable insights into actual demand, the community perception, and prevailing market conditions. For most tokens, this event will bring in the highest organic volumes and establishes the groundwork for subsequent price discovery.

As 2024 concludes, the cryptocurrency industry has reflected on several pivotal themes we forecasted a year ago. These themes—spanning exchange consolidation, the rise of decentralized exchanges (DEXs), and a dynamic regulatory landscape—offer a valuable lens to evaluate the evolving performance of primary listings. Let’s delve into these developments and their implications.

1. Consolidation Among Centralized Exchanges (CEXs): The consolidation trend among CEXs has continued as smaller players struggle to compete with rising compliance costs and operational complexities. This has streamlined liquidity across fewer platforms, though it has also amplified reliance on dominant players like Binance and Bybit.

2. Rise of Decentralized Alternatives: Decentralized exchanges, buoyed by innovations in scalability and user experience, have returned as formidable players. Unique incentive structures and enhanced security have made them increasingly attractive for projects prioritizing autonomy and community trust.

3. Emergence of Hybrid Models: Platforms blending the liquidity efficiency of CEXs with the trustless mechanisms of DEXs have gained ground. These hybrids address key market demands, offering scalable solutions without compromising decentralization.

4. Regulatory Adaptation: Globally, exchanges have heightened their focus on compliance, aligning with more stringent international frameworks. This regulatory clarity has spurred interest in security-based platforms and opened doors to broader institutional participation.

5. Technological Innovation: Advances in layer-2 solutions and cross-chain interoperability have enriched user experiences and bolstered exchange security. These innovations are pivotal in sustaining the evolution of primary listings.

Let’s take a look at these themes in the lens of primary listing performance.

Consolidation of Centralized Exchanges and Exchange Analysis 

Note: Multiples represent price growth from listing to key time intervals. Win rate is the percentage of successful or “winning” launches by exchange. While Binance maintains its dominance in early performance metrics, long-term gains are diminishing across most platforms. These figures underscore a shift towards optimizing listing strategies for sustained impact.

Over the past year, the number of exchanges we actively track for primary listings has narrowed from 25 to 7 key centralized entities. This evolution reflects the consolidation trend we anticipated, driven by increasing compliance costs, competitive pressures, and the global shift toward regulatory clarity. This list is not exhaustive for exchanges we view as value add for primary entrance and most notably does not include Bithumb Korea, Upbit Korea, and decentralized exchanges.

Multiples, while a valuable data point, only paint a partial picture of where exchanges stand. We must also consider initial volume, persistent volume, exchange costs, and exchange health. Acheron’s extensive pre market modeling and strategy process aims to optimize an asset’s entrance to market. 

Monthly Analysis of Market Entrance

The performance of primary listings over the past year illustrates an evolving narrative shaped by market cycles, macroeconomic conditions, and shifting investor sentiment. The past year has seen 3 distinct periods out of the 2022 bear cycle which extended deep into 2023.

Our most recent primary listing update covers the initial bullish period characterized by speculation and interest as a result of the Bitcoin ETF. You can read more about this period here.

From May 2024 to September 2024, the market entered a consolidation phase characterized by decreasing activity and declining listing performance. Macroeconomic pressures, including monetary tightening and weak global economic forecasts, stifled market enthusiasm. September 2024, marked by only six listings and a 7-day multiple of 1.7x, emerged as the weakest month since the Luna collapse in May 2022. This phase further highlighted the growing disparity between the performance of blue-chip assets and altcoins, the latter failing to capitalize on broader market developments.

October and November 2024 suggest significant upside for the current cycle, driven primarily by election-related speculative trading. October 2024 recorded a 35.00% win rate and a sharp rebound in 7-day multiples to 5.8x, underscoring the impact of pre-election trading volume. November 2024, while volatile and marked by a low win rate of 6.45%, saw robust 7-day multiples of 8.0x, reflecting heightened speculative interest. Institutional focus during this period remained squarely on Bitcoin and Ether, while altcoins continued to lag as retail enthusiasm concentrated on memecoins.

Moving Forward

Decentralized Momentum

The shift toward decentralized exchanges (DEXs) reflects an evolving market preference for cost-efficiency and greater project autonomy. Traditional centralized exchanges (CEXs) often impose substantial listing fees—ranging from hundreds of thousands to even millions of dollars—alongside potentially predatory conditions. For many projects, particularly those in their nascent stages, these costs represent a significant barrier to entry.

In contrast, DEXs eliminate these upfront financial burdens by leveraging automated market makers (AMMs) or decentralized limit order books. Projects can deploy liquidity pools directly via smart contracts, allowing them to bootstrap their ecosystems without reliance on external intermediaries. This approach not only empowers projects to retain control over their tokenomics but also aligns with the broader ethos of decentralization.

Additionally, DEXs provide enhanced transparency. Every transaction, order, and liquidity addition is recorded on-chain, enabling participants to verify activities independently. This transparency bolsters trust and community engagement, which are increasingly critical in a competitive market.

Platforms like Uniswap, SushiSwap, and PancakeSwap have demonstrated the scalability of this model. Meanwhile, more advanced systems such as Hyperliquid and Aerodrome are building on this foundation by introducing features like deeper liquidity and cross-chain compatibility, further driving the appeal of decentralized solutions.

Regulatory Engagement

As global regulators intensify their focus on crypto markets, compliance is no longer optional—it is foundational for long-term viability. Regulatory clarity provides a dual advantage: it reassures institutional players wary of regulatory risks and sets a framework that facilitates broader market participation.

Exchanges actively engaging with regulators have emerged as leaders in building trust and fostering legitimacy. These platforms are investing heavily in Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) protocols to meet international standards. For example, compliance-driven platforms like Coinbase and Bitstamp have positioned themselves as the go-to venues for institutional investors by maintaining rigorous standards and prioritizing security.

The rise of security-token exchanges further exemplifies this trend. Platforms like Archax, Securitize, and Chintai cater specifically to regulated digital securities, offering robust compliance frameworks that appeal to enterprises and institutional capital. These exchanges are paving the way for tokenized equities, bonds, and other real-world assets to enter the crypto ecosystem.

In the long term, regulatory engagement will likely accelerate the integration of crypto with traditional financial markets. By aligning with legal frameworks, exchanges can unlock new growth opportunities, including cross-border trading partnerships, derivatives markets, and greater integration with traditional banking infrastructure.

Strategic Innovation

The emergence of hybrid and specialized platforms underscores the growing demand for tailored solutions that bridge the strengths of both centralized and decentralized models. Hybrid exchanges integrate centralized features, such as limit order books and high-throughput matching engines, with decentralized elements like on-chain settlement and user custody of funds. This combination offers the best of both worlds—CEX-level liquidity and efficiency paired with DEX-level security and autonomy.

Platforms like Hyperliquid exemplify this approach by offering robust trading mechanics that rival traditional exchanges while maintaining decentralized governance. Similarly, Dexalot blends familiar liquidity structures with blockchain transparency, making it particularly appealing for projects requiring deep liquidity without compromising on decentralization.

Moreover, specialized exchanges catering to niche markets or innovative features are gaining traction. For instance:

• Chainswap focuses on cross-chain token swaps, addressing the growing need for interoperability as blockchain ecosystems diversify.

• Astroport, with its dynamic AMM model, tailors liquidity provision to specific market conditions, optimizing capital efficiency for both traders and liquidity providers.

These innovations reflect a broader trend toward market segmentation. As the crypto ecosystem matures, one-size-fits-all solutions are being replaced by purpose-built platforms that cater to distinct use cases. This specialization not only enhances user experience but also drives competition, pushing the boundaries of what exchanges can offer.