Exchange Listing Performance (June 2024)

TL;DR

A token's entry into secondary markets is a pivotal event, offering valuable insights into actual demand, community perception, and prevailing market conditions. The listing market became oversaturated by mid-April as projects rushed to market during a return to the bull market. It is preferable to list when the number of primary listings is increasing rather than decreasing. Listing performance is highly dependent on Bitcoin's price performance.

Exchange listing performance

We analyze the performance of tokens listed on premier centralized exchanges. By leveraging data from these exchanges and other publicly available information, we assess the effectiveness and success of each exchange. We focus on key metrics such as the number of listings, win rate, average ATH (All-Time High) multiples, and other time-related multiples. This analysis aims to provide valuable insights into the performance of tokens on specific exchanges over time.

Over the past few months, we have updated our data to include 878 listings from August 2021 to June 2024. As of June 2024, the market remains uncertain, with participants unclear about the broader market's future direction. Much of this analysis is covered in our latest report here.

April Onward

April 2024 saw the highest number of listings, partly due to the delayed schedule of exchanges following Bitcoin's all-time high in mid-March. However, the surge in listings spread market demand too thin, leading to declining performance in April, which has continued through June. As the number of listings continues to decline month-over-month, multiples across all time horizons have also decreased.

We have found that listings tend to perform better when they are increasing month-over-month. Conversely, if listings are decreasing month-over-month, listing multiples are likely to trend lower. This trend holds true for two-thirds of the time since 2023. For the cases where this pattern does not hold, it is typically due to a macro-driven event. You can find this data from 2023 onward below.

Correlations

We remain in a market highly dependent on the performance of major assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Our data shows a clear correlation between Bitcoin's asset appreciation and primary listing performance. Below, we examine Bitcoin’s seven-day rolling performance since 2022 versus primary listing performance.

So where do we stand?

The market has trended lower since Bitcoin's all-time high. Recent Bitcoin rolling performance has ranged between -5.31% to 2.85%. This range is common for listings and resembles the period from late December 2023 to early January 2024. In both periods, the market consolidated, awaiting the approval of spot trading for Bitcoin (late Dec to early Jan) and Ethereum (present). Market performance in this range slightly outperforms that in the 0% to 5% range. However, extended performance (24-hour multiples) still remains below that of superior BTC performance.

Concluding Thoughts

We see the Ethereum ETF as an opportunity to return to a bullish market. The market remains in a necessary consolidation phase post a meteoric rise in major assets followed by an abundance of listings entering the market.

Exchanges have slowed down and reduced the target number of listings per month as demand has waned. While July and August may continue this trend, we expect a potential turnaround as market conditions stabilize.

One topic not discussed here is detailed exchange performance. We have continued to see considerable consolidation post Bitcoin ATH. If you would like to hear more about these topics and where exchanges stand, do not hesitate to reach out.