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lightning 01 Dec 2025

Market Update Summary - Dec 01

written by
Jesper Javier Slager Quantitative trader
&
Jeng Quantitative Trader
&
Yuk Quantitive trader

Abstract

Crypto markets remained under pressure this week with Bitcoin prices stabilizing around ~$90k following heavy outflows from ETF's and wide-scale liquidations. XRP and SOL saw modest rebound, while the broader altcoin markets remained muted. Smart money flows concentrated into ETH-based tokens such as MORPHO, SKY and REKT. Solana based projects TROLL, ONYC and KLED also saw inflows. Conversely, outflows hit ETH projects including AAVE and LINK, highlighting a continued deleveraging in DeFi blue chips.

A large development for regulation came with the Singapore Exchange (SGX) announcing the launch of institutional BTC and ETH perpetual futures products. This is a major step for mainstream adoption of regulated crypto derivatives in the Asian market.

Major Token Performance Performance

How to Read These Charts

These charts show the cumulative price returns of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum ETH), and the COIN50 index over the selected period — 30 days, 7 days or 24 hours. Returns are rebased to 0% at the start of each period to highlight relative performance trends between assets.

The BTC dominance line (secondary axis) tracks Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, offering context on capital rotation between BTC and altcoins. Rising BTC dominance typically indicates capital consolidation into Bitcoin, while a decline suggests increased risk appetite and flows into altcoins.

Use these charts to quickly assess:

  • Which assets outperformed or underperformed over the period

  • Whether market strength was concentrated (BTC-led) or broad-based

  • How shifts in BTC dominance align with overall performance trends

Asset

30D Change

7D Change

1D Change

Price

BTCUSD

-19.07%

-1.13%

0.00%

91,089.93

ETHUSD

-24.42%

-0.51%

0.00%

3,011.73

XRPUSD

-16.37%

3.21%

0.00%

2,191

BNBUSD

-18.68%

-0.69%

0.00%

898.6

SOLUSD

-27.54%

1.67%

0.00%

140.73

COIN50USDC.P

-20.77%

-0.75%

0.00%

385.67

XAUUSD

5.45%

2.34%

0.00%

4,189.94

SPX

-1.54%

0.90%

0.00%

6,812.61

How to Read This Table

This table summarizes the percentage price change of key crypto and macro assets over three timeframes: 30 days, 7 days, and 24 hours. It includes major cryptocurrencies (e.g., BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL), a benchmark altcoin index (COIN50), and traditional market comparables like gold (XAU) and the S&P 500 (SPX).

The data allows you to:

  • Compare short-term and medium-term performance across sectors

  • Spot momentum leaders and laggards in both crypto and traditional markets

  • Assess whether market moves were broad-based or asset-specific

  • Track how crypto assets performed relative to macro benchmarks

This table provides a concise view of market dynamics across different asset classes and helps contextualize crypto performance within a broader macro landscape.

Newly Listed Projects

As of 2025-08-15 1:00PM

Projects and Exchanges

Project

Symbol

Exchange(s)

Listing Date

GAIB

GAIB

Bybit

2025-11-19

Checkmate

CHECK

Kraken

2025-11-21

Price Performance

Symbol

Opening Price

Current Price

24 hour Change

All-Time High

All-Time Low

Current Multiple from Open

ATH Multiple from Open

GAIB

$0.03

$0.07134

450.2%

$0.2494

$0.2494

2.38x

8.31x

CHECK

$0.0431

$0.03518

-54.05%

$0.0433

$0.006548

1.23x

0.995x

Liquidity Performance

Symbol

Spread

+2% Depth

-2% Depth

24 Hour Volume

GAIB

0.17%

$7,789

$8,661

$1,619,195

CHECK

2.98%

$324

$30

$1,360,299

Smart Money Flows

Top 10 7D Flows

Asset

Chain

24H Flow

7D Flow

30D Flow

Market Cap

MORPHO

ethereum

0.00

904.08K

904.08K

811.32M

YB

ethereum

68.43K

68.43K

177.94K

39.49M

SHFL

ethereum

50.00K

64.98K

108.13K

132.25M

TROLL

solana

0.00

62.34K

-2.12K

40.01M

REKT

ethereum

11.77K

58.27K

99.22K

166.24M

ONYC

solana

0.00

39.98K

39.98K

105.17M

67

solana

20.90K

39.38K

-94.16K

17.07M

STRK

ethereum

0.00

15.50K

-11.26K

647.79M

SBR

ethereum

0.00

12.49K

12.49K

745.06K

MON

solana

4.00K

12.28K

12.28K

25.67M

Bottom 10 7D Flows

Asset

Chain

24H Flow

7D Flow

30D Flow

Market Cap

LINK

ethereum

0.00

-1.47M

-1.33M

9.30B

G

ethereum

0.00

-412.83K

-412.83K

39.38M

MOCA

ethereum

0.00

-378.06K

-378.06K

97.86M

SENA

ethereum

0.00

-330.13K

-330.13K

280.23M

MAV

ethereum

0.00

-190.35K

-235.61K

21.96M

AAVE

ethereum

-12.09K

-175.87K

-4.59M

2.81B

ENA

ethereum

0.00

-135.08K

-1.02M

2.13B

WOJAK

solana

-9.46K

-81.25K

-177.83K

46.03M

MOVE

ethereum

0.00

-57.42K

-57.42K

148.47M

WLD

ethereum

0.00

-44.53K

-245.94K

1.54B

These tables track the weekly movement of "smart money" wallets across various tokens and chains.

The Top 10 7D Flows table highlights assets that have seen the largest net inflows from smart money in the past 7 days. A high and rising 7D flow suggests growing interest, accumulation, or conviction by sophisticated traders, and may indicate strong underlying narratives or catalysts. Compare these flows with the token’s market cap to assess relative impact, inflows into small-cap assets are generally more price-sensitive.

Conversely, the Bottom 10 7D Flows table shows tokens with the largest net outflows from smart money wallets. Persistent or large outflows may reflect profit-taking, loss-cutting, or reduced confidence, and can signal weakening sentiment or fading momentum. Watch for sustained outflows alongside declining price or on-chain activity.

Use these tables to:

  • Identify tokens where smart money is actively positioning

  • Spot emerging narratives or sentiment reversals

  • Gauge chain-specific flows, e.g., Solana vs. Ethereum vs. Base

  • Inform rotational strategies across high-alpha tokens

Stablecoin Flows

Stablecoin flow data provides a real-time pulse of capital movement across exchanges and chains.

Rising stablecoin balances on-chain or on exchanges often indicate inbound liquidity, capital sitting on the sidelines potentially awaiting deployment into crypto assets. Large inflows may precede buying activity, suggesting growing market participation or renewed confidence.

On the other hand, net outflows of stablecoins could imply that capital is either exiting the crypto ecosystem or being actively deployed into volatile tokens, especially when accompanied by declining exchange balances or stablecoin dominance.

Use stablecoin flows to:

  • Detect early signs of market risk appetite

  • Monitor capital rotation between stablecoins and volatile assets

  • Confirm the sustainability of rallies (is money really coming in?)

  • Support broader macro or positioning views from other data (e.g., smart money behavior or BTC dominance)

Macro & Crypto News

November 26: S&P Downgrades Tether’s USDT

S&P Global Ratings downgraded USDT’s stability score from “constrained (4)” to the weakest rating, “weak (5),” due to rising exposure to volatile assets, with Bitcoin making up 5.6% of its reserves. A continued fall in Bitcoin prices raises fears that USDT may become undercollateralized. Beyond BTC, roughly 24% of reserves are now held in “high-risk” assets (corporate bonds, secured loans, precious metals), up from 17% a year ago.

Despite the downgrade, USDT remains the largest stablecoin by market cap (~USD 180 billion), and its widespread use in emerging markets means the implications for crypto markets and stability remain significant.

November 22: Institutions Look to BTCFi as DATs Face Pressure

As valuations tighten and passive Bitcoin holdings become less attractive, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are re-strategizing, looking for liquidity, returns and yield from BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance).

According to firms such as Anchorage Digital, institutions increasingly want Bitcoin not just as a long-term hold, but as an asset that can actively work in their portfolio, by earning rewards, unlocking liquidity, or serving as collateral. Platforms like Mezo (via its wallet “Porto”) now offer services where institutions can borrow stablecoins against BTC or earn on-chain rewards.

BTCFi’s total value locked has surged from around $200 M to nearly $9 B over the past year signalling rising institutional interest, though still small relative to total BTC supply. If regulatory clarity, robust custody integration and risk-management frameworks align, we could see a meaningful institutional shift from passive BTC treasuries to productive, yield-oriented BTCFi

November 17: Singapore Exchange to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) has announced its derivative platform will launch a regulated BTC and STH perpetual futures trading product on its platform, launching November 24. The launch is a key milestone for the expansion of crypto-derivative access in Asia, offering a regulated space, potentially increasing liquidity and giving institutional investors new tools to gain exposure to underlying assets.




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