#33 01 Dec 2021
BTC finally went to test the GP2 (Yellow Box) which was the bullish level to be held and also the border of the channel. Now, we can see the formation of a falling wedge inside a possible Bull Flag.
The bullish scenario would be the break out of the wedge until the purple box. Possible resistance at that point and retracement to retest the wedge before upwards continuation until the upper border of the bull flag. That would be the textbook movement. The target profit levels in case of this movement are the same as they were before but added an extra one which would be the TP of the main bull flag in case it will break out.
The bearish scenario would be the invalidation of that initial breakout to retest the GP2 and possibly falling below that support, which could be the end of the bull trend.
As always, good to see both scenarios but for the moment, the bullish one looks pretty probable unless we have another black swan as we had last week with the new Omnicron Covid variant.
On the monthly chart, we created a bearish divergence which is something to keep in mind but as we can see in the previous ones, 3 of 5 created a month of retracement while 2 of 5 created an end of a bull market or a big drop.
If we analyze these 2 last, we see that one of them was created at the end of a cycle after a break-out and a parabolic move and the other one was when we had the Covid panic all-around all markets last year. For instance, the other 3 bearish divergences, were retracements along with a bullish trend. If that’s the case, we have retraced during November and December should have to be the bullish month as expected.
Dominance continues the descending trend, now being supported into the border of the channel and near blue box again.
It is in a consolidation zone since May, so it is helping to alts. The probable bounce of it in the blue box again could make BTC take control over alts.
ETH is getting strong momentum, more than BTC at the moment.
After the big drop of last week, it arrived at the border of the channel and created a nice Bullish Divergence that has given impulse to it. We added an inner level to the main target profits. For the moment, it looks like bullish continuation.
TOTAL MARKET CAP INDEX
Total market cap supported into the GP and created a Diamond Bottom. Now at a resistance level that in case of break out could make the price action re-enter into the main ascending channel.
ALTCOIN MARKET INDEX
Altcoin Market Cap created same movement as TOTAL but in that case we can see that we have break out the resistance and seems to go forward TOTAL.vThat looks great for altcoins.
All looks like it is going on the bullish direction as expected. However, we have to be cautious as last week we have seen how susceptible the market is to external news that can cause big drops in the overall market.
If the Omicron Covid variant can be under control, and we have no more Black Swans during the next weeks, December could be the bullish one that almost everyone is waiting for. Which could lead to the end of the 4 year cycle. Still too soon to say, but something to have in mind.