Since the last Market Update, BTC has retraced approximately a -20%, which is the normal behaviour that we were expecting based on the movements that November tends to create in a bull run.
Now, we are arriving at the main GP and also the border of the channel while we are beginning to create Bull divergences on 4h, 12h, and 1D, still to be confirmed during today’s candle close. That is a very good sign for the price action of BTC and from here we can see as always 2 scenarios:
The bullish scenario which we think is then more probable to happen is that BTC could still consolidate around that zone, even dropping a bit more until the GP or go higher from that point in order to continue the bullish trend, probably to create a parabolic one during next month.
The bearish scenario, which would be the break-down of the channel and weekly close under the main GP, would be a trend invalidation and a probable end of the bullish move. For the moment, we are still in a bull scenario and nothing is pointing the other direction unless SPY decides to finally break down and turn bearish from that point where we are now.
Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see that RSI is at support right now, so for the moment, the trend in bigger time frames is still intact. The same happens with 3D charts.
Dominance at this moment is dropping giving some oxygen to altcoins as most of them are right at the lower border of ascending channels so doing that they are being kept into a bullish trend while BTC is consolidating in the zone.
We see that the RSI trend of Dominance on daily is breaking down so, in case of continuation, we could see some nice bullish movements on some altcoins during this week before BTC decides to take control again. Blue boxes are support zones to have into consideration.
ETH broke down the inner ascending channel and has been supported inside the last orange box as explained in the last market update. Today ETH is doing a nice bullish movement and could be possible to see a trend reversal at this point. Dominance is helping ETH to take momentum as well and target profit levels and supports remain the same.
TOTAL MARKET CAP INDEX
The total market cap broke down the ascending channel to achieve the GP of the movement. Even if we have broken down the channel, the move is still bullish while supported into the GP and the channel can be recovered at any time. Of course, going down the GP would be a bearish sign.
ALTCOIN MARKET INDEX
Altcoin Market Cap is also being supported at GP. For the moment a normal retracement into a bull trend and being held into the previous resistances now acting as supports.
The expected -20% retracement happened, and now we are at the support zone. Nothing bearish for the moment but the normal retracement into a bull trend. BTC remains strong, and the probable scenario is still the last parabola during December.
However, we can’t forget the bearish side which could possibly be triggered by a dump in the stock market, which is quite overbought and at very dangerous levels. What we have seen during the last 2 days is that BTC is following the same intraday movements as SPY and that’s why a bearish trend in stocks could cause the end of the bullish momentum of BTC.