#33 11 Nov 2021
Today, we have cleaned the charts in order to make them easier to understand, hence why older levels/boxes have been removed.
During the last movement, BTC achieved the first main level (Orange Box). We can see that it is struggling a bit to make a clear break out of the All-Time Highs (ATH) and we can notice that the buying pressure is not very strong looking at the RSI. We see in the 1D chart that we are not creating Higher Highs in RSI (at least yet) which is giving us bearish divergences on the way up.
On the bull side, we are now bouncing in the GP1 level, which is a possible intraday support. If we can hold here and continue up, we can achieve the next levels of the orange box with inner levels inside signalled with new white lines. Those lines are possible resistances if they are achieved.
On the bear side, if GP1 is not achieved and BTC decides to do a bigger retracement, the GP2 would be the last resort level inside the bull trend. Achieving GP2 is not bearish at all but a normal correction on a bull trend.
On the other side, breaking down the main ascending channel and the GP2 level would be bearish. That said, that is far from where we are now and odds are that we will continue the bullish momentum for the next weeks with or without retracement.
Regarding BTC Dominance, we are using the same chart as last market update to see that we held in the GP (Yellow Box) and as soon as BTC decided to move through the Breaking Out Zone, it flipped to an uptrend.
For the moment, it is possible to achieve the purple box and if that happens, the altcoin season will have to wait until Dominance starts to drop again.
ETH broke out of ATH and now achieved the third level. It has been in a very strong ascending channel since October, so as long as BTC holds the uptrend for ETH can continue upwards.
In case of a retracement, the Yellow Box could be strong support but before arriving there, past resistance levels (orange boxes) will also act as support.
TOTAL MARKET CAP INDEX
Total MC, following the uptrend movement but equal to BTC, is beginning to create bear divergences on the RSI which could be another indicator of a possible retracement to come during the next days or weeks.
On the bull side, we can be creating bear divergences for weeks in a very strong uptrend movement but better to have it in mind rather than ignore it.
ALTCOIN MARKET INDEX
TOTAL2 is in a strong bull trend and ascending inner channel. It achieved the last level of the movement that began in mid-July.
Like the other charts, if we retrace, the yellow box can be strong support and in case of bull continuation, next to orange boxes will be the targets to be achieved in the next weeks.
The bull trend is intact. Every week, we have some kind of shake-out that creates some nasty candles on the low time frame. Aside from that, the market remains bullish but as we go higher, the more cautious we have to be.
If we see the behaviour in past years, we can see how November tends to create retracements of at least -20% before the possible last parabolic movement during December.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it gives us an idea of what could happen during the next weeks. SPY is also achieving a new ATH and is retracing, so that could make also BTC follow its retracement.