#33 05 Oct 2021
As we can see, the MA20W (Pink line) has been a very important support for more than a week and finally the price rebounded from that point creating a 12h bull divergence which is an important signal of possible trend change.
BTC got out of the consolidation zone last week after achieving the inner levels inside the falling wedges explained in the last market update.
Zooming out and cleaning the chart, we see that BTC created an Adam & Eve double bottom and it is going to the first orange box. That breakout movement is considered very bullish and the probabilities of a bull run continuation has increased during last week.
In the weekly chart, we can see a Tweezer Bottom candlestick pattern, which tends to be a reversal signal held by the MA20W and if we can close the week over the descending trend on the RSI would be quite significant.
After a few weeks with the same levels, we cleaned the ones that had been achieved and created a new chart with clean levels. Dominance is still in an uptrend, which means that every time that BTC pumps, alts will fall against BTC.
The first important resistance is the purple box. If BTC arrives there and is rejected, we can see a nice altcoin season, but that is still too soon to be said, so we need to wait to have more information about that.
For the moment, the similarities with Q4 2017 are quite significant if we look at the proportional purple box in 2017 and now in 2021.
ETH broke the descending trend and achieved the orange box. Now, a bit of consolidation here is possible and in case of continuation, orange boxes are the next targets to be achieved. As always, ETH will follow BTC.
ALTCOIN MARKET INDEX
Altcoin market created an Adam & Eve and went to the purple box. Now, a bit of consolidation here before possible uptrend continuation.
TOTAL MARKET CAP INDEX
Total market cap went over the purple box direct to the orange box. Also, we can see 2 gaps during the uptrend which is something unusual showing strength on the movement.
The Crypto market, for the moment, is following exactly the same cyclical behaviour as in 2017. After a bullish summer, we have had a bearish September that brought a bit of cool down to the market and a possible fresh impulse for the next months.
The next 2-3 months will be quite significant if we are in the late phase of the 4 years cycle, meaning that we could be in the parabola phase. If that’s the case, it is very probable that we will see some shakeouts on the way out, so it will be for sure very interesting months for the market.
Another interesting and bullish sign is that while BTC has pumped, the SPY has been dumping until today, showing a kind of temporary decorrelation between crypto and stocks and, we say “temporary” because we don’t have enough days in order to be significant, but is something that we will be looking at.