#33 12 Sep 2022
BTC bounced again in the main level (blue Box) created by the big head & shoulders. It is now testing the inner golden pocket and also the lost channel.
If we break out of this zone, we can go to the higher level (orange box) around the 28K zone. In case of failure, it is very probable that we break down the blue box and go to the lower levels.
It looks like we are creating a double bottom and also the descending trend on 3D RSI that was initiated at the beginning of 2021 might break out.
If that is the case, as commented in past market updates, would be a significant movement that could bring the end of the bear trend and the beginning of the accumulation range, meaning the beginning of a new cycle.
After Dominance reached the blue box again, we see that we had a clear reaction.
Exceptional is that instead of BTC breaking down to recover its dominance, BTC went up. This tends to be a bullish sign that marks the beginning of a new cycle where BTC bounces, alts decline against BTC while going up against fiat, and at the end of the BTC bullish movement, that tends to hold versus fiat and an alt season begins.
This is what happened during previous cycles, but of course, it is not a certainty that we will repeat this. Important to notice is that we talk about cycles here which take months to unfold.
We can see that ETH broke out of the falling wedge and now achieved its golden pocket (purple box). As same as BTC that is a key point where we can see a continuation up to the orange box or 161 Fibonacci zone of the falling wedge and also top of the main bull flag or rejection that will bring us to lower levels.
It looks like the usual bearish September has been changed by the early August downtrend.
This type of move is usually the beginning of a new cycle as explained above, but we need to clear first the inner GP (Purple box) of BTC. If that happens, we can see some momentum for the next weeks.
However, we always need to have in mind that crypto at this moment is very correlated with S&P500 and Nasdaq. In the case of a black swan in traditional markets, we will see it reflected in the crypto market.
Also, we have the ETH merge soon, and we don’t know how that will affect the market after the event.