Crypto Market Update 06/28/2023
SPY has finally broken out of both the ascending channel and the horizontal resistance. Currently, there is a retest of these levels taking place. The market remains bullish at the moment, and numerous stocks have experienced significant gains in recent weeks.
Based on the same chart from the previous market update, it is evident that BTC has completed its consolidation within the falling wedge pattern. Furthermore, once we reached the 161 support level, which also coincided with the horizontal support, a bounce occurred. This upward movement was accompanied by positive news surrounding BTC and increased institutional involvement.
The recent golden cross between the MA20W and MA200W is a positive sign, indicating a potential shift towards a bullish trend in the long term.
By examining the price movements, we can observe a pattern of consolidation and subsequent impulses. Movement A transitioned into a consolidation phase, B. This consolidation has generated a new impulse with the potential to reach the orange level referred to as "BULL FLAG 161" (assuming it can be attained within the current market cycle).
However, before reaching that level, a significant impulse labeled C was triggered by positive news. This movement resulted in a breakout from the bull flag. Following the swift nature of this movement, we are currently experiencing movement D, which represents a consolidation phase.
In order to proceed to the next phase, namely the final F movement and reaching the last orange box denoted as "BULL FLAG 161," it is necessary for the RSI (Relative Strength Index) to cool down across all timeframes. This cooldown period will help set the stage for a new impulse to occur.
The yellow box, between 32K and 36K, represents a zone with multiple coinciding levels, indicating a significant concentration of supply. This suggests that it could potentially mark the end of the bullish momentum that has been present since the beginning of the year, leading to a prolonged consolidation phase until the end of the year.
However, it's important to recognize that this analysis and speculation are based on the behavior of BTC in past cycles. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to change, and unforeseen events can have a profound impact on the market. Therefore, it's crucial to approach these projections with a degree of caution and remain aware of the inherent uncertainties and unpredictability of the markets.
Since the beginning of the year, dominance has been following an ascending channel, and recently it successfully broke out of the resistance that had been in place since May 2021. This is a significant achievement for dominance. Currently, it is approaching a crucial level represented by the orange box.
It's important to note that dominance is not solely about BTC versus altcoins but also about BTC's performance against stablecoins. Therefore, it is essential to consider that what we are witnessing is not only BTC gaining ground against altcoins, but also a potential transfer of funds from stablecoins to BTC.
Currently, it appears that ETH is underperforming compared to other altcoins, and its price movements are closely mirroring those of BTC, even exhibiting similar percentage changes. As a result, there isn't much noteworthy to mention about ETH's performance at the moment.
The market is following its expected cycle, supported by positive developments such as increased involvement of funds, institutions, and even politicians in the crypto space. These factors lay the groundwork for the next cycle. However, it remains essential to analyze how previous cycles have unfolded to gain an objective understanding of the market dynamics.
Based on historical patterns, in similar market conditions, June tends to be a bearish month, while July and mid-August exhibit bullish tendencies. Subsequently, a downtrend typically ensues until the end of the year. This pattern has been observed in previous cycles following bear markets. Therefore, at this point, it can be considered a high probability scenario for the current market. However, it's important to remember that the market is dynamic and subject to changes, so monitoring ongoing developments is crucial for accurate analysis.
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