Crypto Market Update

BTC

Three weeks after our last market update, not a lot has changed in the markets from a technical analysis point of view.

BTC was not able to achieve the orange level as it began to create bearish divergences in the 4h timeframe being a sign of buyers losing momentum.

After we broke the MA20W to the upside, a retest days later didn't work as support, the middle level of the ascending channel was broken, and support on RSI.

Today we are at the lower level of the ascending channel. This is a very important point to hold.

From this point, we can bounce again as we did last months and try to reach the orange box or if that level fails, we will go to the 30K zone.

As we know the bullish (orange) levels for months, let's have a look today also at the bearish (blue) levels.

If the ascending channel fails, that could be considered a bear flag, and the levels of that pattern would be under the 30K level that has been holding us for almost a year. You can see the level as the first blue box under the yellow zone.

That scenario would print as well a very big Head and Shoulder pattern with its own landing zone under the previous one, see the next 2 blue boxes.

The first box would be the logarithmic measurement of the pattern and the second would be the linear measurement, so we must see both to have a better understanding of the big picture.

Those levels could be the levels to achieve in case of a possible market capitulation, as we have seen in previous cycles.

BTC Dominance

Regarding Dominance, a possibility is a bounce in the golden pocket (yellow box) zone as it looks like an inverse H&S.

As we know already for BTC.D: Breaking down, bullish momentum for altcoin, bouncing here, bearish for altcoins and also possible fall of BTC.

ETH

ETH has been achieving every level very well and was dragged down while BTC was falling. It is at the moment also at the same point as BTC in the border of the ascending channel and also the Main GP level.

As we have explained with BTC, if that holds here, we can bounce to the second orange box, but if it fails, we can go to the main blue box.

CONCLUSION

Lateral market since almost a year in BTC from 30K to 60K. We knew that 2022 could be a ranging market so nothing new on the horizon about this, besides that we are now at a 50/50 situation where everything can happen.

As we have repeated several times, this is very similar to what we had in 2018 and that is why, for the moment, we remain cautious, and we don’t try to move in advance of the market.

From the investor's point of view, it is not a bad idea to take some positions at the bottom of these movements while BTC is ranging in case we bounce from here. In case of a big capitulation, the maximum point of opportunity will come at lower levels while retail investors enter panic mode.

The stock market is still in selling mode and for the moment there is no sign of a bullish reversal, which will have an impact on the general crypto markets.