For the last 2 weeks, BTC has been ranging inside the channel/ascending triangle that we were talking about in the last market update, also RSI stays in the ascending channel. The market is very slow, but last days gave us some new information.
First, we will post the chart made the last market update, main levels are still the same for weeks.
Points we are keeping an eye on:
1. RSI is creating a symmetrical triangle. This pattern doesn't follow a clear trend, but it can give us limits that will follow price action. If the pattern breaks up, we can see bullish continuation. If it breaks down, it would mean a lack of buying pressure in the market and possible bear continuation.
2. We have a bullish divergence on the 3D timeframe and as we have seen in the past while in a bull market these divergences are very important and significant to create a bullish reversal in a descending trend, in a bear market they can spark a short bullish run.
3. Finally, looking at the weekly chart, after weeks of rejection at resistance levels, we closed above the last 3 weeks levels giving us an Adam & Eve pattern which tends to be a bullish pattern:
Most of the charts looks bullish, but the tricky situation is that we are very near to the MA20W (purple line) which will act as a resistance and a possible end of the momentum when we arrive there.
After being at the purple box resistance for weeks, dominance has been rejected at it and broke down the immediate ascending trend, which is very good for altcoins as explained before.
While BTC keeps ranging on the ascending triangle and dominance keeps falling, we will see bullish price action on altcoins.
ETH broke out the main descending trend and is keeping the price action inside the ascending channel, but it is not out of the woods yet until it breaks out the middle line of the ascending channel. That would bring confirmation of momentum. If that can’t be broken, it can be a bear flag we are looking at.
However, the bullish view is that as BTC did, ETH created a 3D and possible weekly bullish divergence which can result in higher levels.
Seems that we are finally having the bullish momentum that we have been waiting for months. However, movements are slow and with a lack of confidence due to the global situation.
The correlation between BTC and S&P500 is very significant which tends to happen in bearish markets while in bull markets we see a decorrelation.
The current market conditions can be seen as cautiously bullish, bullish moments during downtrends can be short-lived and turn around quickly with fundamental news, so keeping a possible breakdown of 30k levels is important.
The 30K level could be seen as the 6K level that we had in 2018. While we had several bounces at that level, finally was broke down and created the final capitulation and also the moment of maximum opportunity.