28 Feb 2023
Crypto Market Update 02/28/2023
S&P500
After breaking the descending trend and creating the first higher high, momentum cooled down and for the moment, it looks like we are retesting the trend and also the MA20W.
For now, we are looking at 2 scenarios:
1. We keep the bullish momentum and after the retest, we take a new impulse to definitely break out the horizontal resistance.
2. The movement fails, break down the MA20W, and we possibly retest the MA200W which would be a failure pattern and a demonstration of the lack of interest.
BTC
In the last market update, we arrived at the orange level and MA200W, and we pointed out that this level was an important selling order block. With this comes the possibility of creating bear divergences.
Well, that is what finally happened as BTC was not able to break out. For the moment this is not too bad if the retrace can be kept over the MA20W.
This retracement can have the following scenarios:
We retrace inside the ascending channel created last month.
We break down the channel, and we retest the Inner GP (Yellow Box) and the MA20W.
For the moment, we will not see other scenarios than those, as we always have to go step by step to have a better comprehension of the movements.
Zooming in on the 4h chart, we see how the price is moving through that channel that we talked about earlier and how the bottom of the channel falls together with the 161 of the last movement.
On the other hand, we see the formation of a falling wedge which is a bullish pattern.
BTC Dominance
Dominance is still ranging, while BTC is slowly retracing. Not too much to say, rather than we will have to wait for BTC to move to see how btc.d reacts.
ETH
ETH is also creating an ascending channel and finally has broken up the big falling wedge.
The retracement to the bottom of the channel would be coincident with the retest of the wedge and very near the main GP, MA20W, and MA200W. We can see the possibility of a Golden Cross between these two moving averages during the next few days.
CONCLUSION
The market remains very slow, but this is the expected behavior of an accumulation cycle.
During this time, we don’t have constant volatility, and we have to be patient to see the inner cycles inside the big cycle.
For now, we are waiting to see if the retrace can create a new higher high in the weekly chart or, if that fails, we have to wait to see a new bullish wave.
For the moment, it does not look bad, but time will tell.
