#27 21 Feb 2022
After breaking out the descending channel, BTC is now retesting this point. For the moment, that could be considered as a normal retrace in a normal environment situation. However, we can see how BTC is mirroring S&P500, which is in a descending trend due to the macro-political situation of Russia and Ukraine.
For the moment the main levels remain the same and, as we commented last market update, there are several intermediate levels that influenced the pullback of last week.
However, we can see how we had a daily bearish divergence on the last higher high, which is an indicator of a lack of buying pressure.
In the lower time frames, we are now in the inner GP which should be considered as the landing zone together with the trend retest, but the volume is very low for the moment. We are at the lowest levels of support, which means that if buying pressure doesn't come in here, the 29-30K zone is a very probable landing zone.
For instance, if bulls are able to hold the price here, we should have to see the continuation to the upper levels up to the MA20W around the 47-48K levels.
Dominance almost reached the purple box we had in the past charts and created a rising wedge with bearish divergences that has broken down. It looks like we are near a dominance trend reversal, meaning a possible (small) altcoin season for some days/weeks in case BTC goes into a consolidation mode.
ETH is also testing GP inner support but was not able to break out the descending trend (yet). The levels remain the same and will follow BTC.
The macroeconomic and political situation is defining the current price action. We have very high levels of inflation, a possible war, COVID-19, and other factors that make investors retreat to safety assets and wait for better opportunities.
We can see this fear in the lack of trading volume. Also regarding market cycles, there is a possibility we see this year a retracement in all markets.
The overall scenario is more bearish than bullish in the long term, while in the next 1-2 weeks we could see a temporary bounce in case Russia will not attack Ukraine and fear in the markets reduces.