Crypto Market Update 02/16/2023
The S&P500 has broken out of the main descending trend that began in 2022. As we can see in the chart, we are creating the first higher high after 3 earlier attempts.
This is a bullish scenario as we are now at the horizontal resistance created by the inverse head & shoulders pattern that we discussed in the last market update.
Looking at the RSI, we can also see how we have broken out the horizontal resistance of past movements, entering into the bull side of the momentum, above RSI level 50.
After a few days of retracement, BTC continued it's momentum pushing upwards to the first orange level which is also coincident with the MA200W where the price is now exactly dealing with lots of selling orders due to the confluence of the MA200W and also the first level of the movement.
Zooming into a daily chart, we can see how the past retracement helped the RSI to cool down in order to avoid bear divergences, as we can see in the chart above, on the 3D chart it is possible that we will begin to create some bear divergences during the following days.
The probable scenarios for the following weeks are:
1. BTC keeps pushing up to the second orange level if the momentum continues.
2. BTC retrace to the yellow level, and retests the falling wedge to cool down.
Dominance is pushing upwards, which means that is time for a BTC cycle.
If BTC continues going up, it is probable that it will do it with strength and that the BTC cycle has begun. When that happens, BTC tends to take control over the market until it begins to cool down after which momentum shits to alt coins.
It means that we could see the dominance going to retest the upper orange box again before giving momentum to the altcoins.
But this is just a possible scenario based on past behaviors, for the moment we will keep tracking it step by step.
ETH has the same structure as BTC and seems like the next target will be the orange box. We are now into a horizontal resistance, but it is in the hands of BTC to see how it will continue moving.
For the moment, it seems that we are repeating the 2019 cycle, so we have to be patient and let the move develop further.
Yesterday’s BTC movement was quite bullish, so it seems that we will have continuation for the next weeks, taking into consideration that every movement has its own waves with extensions and retracements.
This is a good moment to see the charts on the weekly time frame to have a better comprehension and look at the big picture of the cycles.